Study forecasts explosive growth in netbook shipments
Posted by Scout on January 29, 2009
Various firms have come out with their predictions for the coming year, including the continued strong momentum for netbooks. The most conservative estimate comes from Gartner, which forecasts a mere 8 million unit shipments for 2009. IDC Corp., meanwhile thinks the figure is going to be around the 21 million mark. However, the most optimistic prediction belongs to New York-based ABI Research, which pegs the value of netbooks shipments this year at 35 million units. The figure seems a little too high, but I’m sure ASUS wouldn’t mind.
Going a little further, ABI Research forecasts that worldwide shipments will reach an incredible 139 million by 2013. To give you an idea of the current environment, there were about 16 million netbooks shipped in 2008 alone. That’s remarkable given that this category of small and cheap notebooks was introduced just a little over a year ago with the EEE PC.
Although I’m pretty bullish myself about this segment, 35 million seems a little too high, especially when you consider ABI reasons. Among them is the mushrooming of several $200 netbooks with processors from FreeScale, Qualcomm and Texas Instruments, all packed with Linux, to lure certain parts of the market. I’m not as convinced as those same manufacturers were interview at CES, and their estimated time-to-market for their products is the second half of this year, in time for the start of the next school year (for the US) and the Christmas season. This might be too late to reach the lofty 35 million figure.
If I were to venture a guess, I would put 2009 netbook shipments at around 25 million units. Additionally, as the prices continue to drop, expect the bulk of those shipments to swing from Europe to Asia. No doubt ubiquitous sub-$200 and even sub-$100 netbooks will come, but in 2010 and beyond. Then, the One Laptop Per Child dream will be reached, albeit in a most circuitous manner, and a little longer than was hoped for.
Looking for something else? Try Search:
Read other posts
Comments
Leave a Reply
Loading ...